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Artificial intelligence (AI) has altered many industries, including personal finance. The incorporation of AI technologies has transformed how people manage their finances, make investment decisions, and plan for the future. In this article, we will look at the substantial impact of AI on personal finance, including its applications, benefits, and potential to shape the financial landscape.

Financial Management Automation

Individuals’ financial management activities have been automated and simplified thanks to AI-powered personal finance applications. These applications can track income, expenses, and financial transactions, providing users with real-time information about their financial health. AI platforms may categorize expenses, make budgets, and even recommend individualized financial strategies based on individual spending patterns by applying machine learning algorithms. This automation saves time while also encouraging improved financial discipline and planning.

Intelligent Financial Suggestions

AI algorithms are capable of analyzing massive volumes of financial data in order to deliver personalized recommendations and insights. AI-powered financial platforms can give personalized investment strategies and portfolio suggestions by assessing historical spending patterns, investment performance, and market movements. Individuals may make informed decisions and optimize their investment results by taking their risk tolerance and financial goals into consideration with this intelligent advice.

Improved Detection and Security of Fraud

Security is a major problem in personal finance, and artificial intelligence has dramatically improved fraud detection and prevention techniques. AI systems may monitor fraudulent activity patterns and find anomalies in real time, allowing for the early detection and mitigation of fraudulent transactions.

Furthermore, AI-powered authentication technologies like biometric recognition and speech recognition give an extra layer of security, making it more difficult for unauthorized individuals to access personal financial information.

Virtual Assistants that are Intelligent

AI-powered virtual assistants, such as chatbots, are becoming more common in personal finance apps. These intelligent assistants can answer questions, offer financial advice, and help with a variety of financial activities. Users can communicate with these virtual assistants via voice commands or text messages, and they will receive immediate responses and instruction. AI-powered virtual assistants provide individualized assistance, allowing people to handle their accounts more efficiently and comfortably.

Financial Planning Using Predictive Analytics

Artificial intelligence systems excel in predictive analytics, allowing users to make data-driven financial decisions. AI can forecast future financial scenarios and provide insights into prospective risks and opportunities by evaluating previous data and market trends. Individuals can use this to create complete financial plans, set realistic goals, and make informed investment selections based on projected market conditions.

Investment Management Automation

AI-powered investment systems, sometimes known as robo-advisors, have grown in popularity in recent years. These systems use artificial intelligence algorithms to build and manage investment portfolios depending on users’ financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Robo-advisors provide cost-effective and accessible investing solutions by automating investment processes, reducing the need for substantial financial knowledge or large money. This democratization of investment management has allowed more people to engage in the financial markets.

Personalized Credit Evaluation and Loan Approval

The traditional credit evaluation and loan approval processes have been changed by artificial intelligence. AI algorithms can give more accurate and personalized credit assessments by assessing an individual’s financial data, spending habits, and credit history. This allows lenders to make more informed and timely decisions, while consumers benefit from greater credit availability and loan approval rates.

Continuous Improvement and Adaptation

One of AI’s primary capabilities is its capacity to learn and adapt based on human behavior and input. As more data is collected, AI-powered personal finance platforms can update their algorithms, delivering more accurate recommendations and insights. Because AI systems are flexible, their financial advice and services are always improving and remaining relevant in a quickly changing financial landscape.

The downsides of using AI for personal finance

While AI-powered tools and algorithms can provide valuable insights and assistance, it is important to recognize the limitations and the significance of human involvement in managing one’s financial well-being.

Personal finance is not only about making specific decisions but also about building financial knowledge and empowering individuals to take control of their own finances. Relying solely on AI can create a passive approach, where individuals may become detached from understanding the intricacies of their financial situation. Human advisors play a crucial role in educating and empowering individuals, providing financial literacy, and fostering a deeper understanding of personal finance concepts. Through ongoing communication and collaboration, individuals can develop the skills and confidence to make informed financial decisions independently.

Another critical aspect of personal finance is understanding and managing emotions related to money. AI lacks the ability to comprehend and address human emotions effectively. Financial decisions often involve complex factors influenced by personal circumstances, values, and goals. The human element brings empathy, intuition, and emotional intelligence to the table, allowing individuals to make financial choices that align with their unique needs and aspirations.

Moreover, AI operates on data analysis and algorithms, which can limit its ability to understand the broader context surrounding personal financial situations. Factors such as cultural influences, family dynamics, and life events can significantly impact financial decisions. Human financial advisors possess the ability to consider these contextual elements, offer personalized advice, and adapt strategies accordingly. They can take into account nuances that AI may overlook, ensuring that financial plans align with individual circumstances.

Conclusion

Artificial intelligence has ushered in a new era of personal finance, providing consumers with intelligent tools and insights to help them better manage their finances. AI has altered the way people approach their financial goals, from automated financial management and tailored investment suggestions to increased security measures and predictive analytics. We may expect ever more sophisticated applications in personal finance as AI technologies evolve, paving the door for a more inclusive and informed financial future.


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Today’s lesson is a virtual treasure trove of wisdom and insight from some of the best trading minds of all time. We are going to go on a journey of discovery and learn a little about some of the best traders ever and dissect some of their famous quotes to see what we can learn and how it applies to our own trading.

The way to learn anything is to learn from the greats, have mentors, teachers, study and read; you must make a concerted effort to absorb as much knowledge from the best in your field as possible, for that is truly the fastest way to success, be it in trading or any other field.

Below, you will find a brief introduction to 10 of the best traders of all time, followed by an inspiring quote from them and how I view that quote and apply it to my own trading principles. Hopefully, after reading today’s lesson you will be able to apply this wisdom to your own trading and start improving your market performance as a result…

George Soros

George-Soros-150x150George Soros gained international notoriety when, in September of 1992, he risked $10 billion on a single currency speculation when he shorted the British pound. He turned out to be right, and in a single day the trade generated a profit of $1 billion – ultimately, it was reported that his profit on the transaction almost reached $2 billion. As a result, he is famously known as the “the man who broke the Bank of England.”

Soros went off on his own in 1973, founding the hedge fund company of Soros Fund Management, which eventually evolved into the well-known and respected Quantum Fund. For almost two decades, he ran this aggressive and successful hedge fund, reportedly racking up returns in excess of 30% per year and, on two occasions, posting annual returns of more than 100%.

Here is a famous quote from Mr. Soros:

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”

The above quote is a big reason why I love George Soros. Indeed, what he is saying describes the way I think about the markets and even some of my price action strategies. My fakey pattern and even a false break strategy in general, are both setups that reflect a way we can use price action to “discount the obvious and bet on the unexpected” as Soros said. Typically, most market players become fixated on one view, one bias of the market, forgetting that markets can switch direction and bias on a dime. You must be ready for everything and be an adaptable trader if you want to be able to make money over the long-run. Certainly, for Soros, betting against the British pound when the whole world was long, paid off; it’s a good example of how not following the herd and not being over-committed to a view can pay off.

In the chart below, we actually see that an obvious bearish fakey (sell signal) had formed the day before the GBPUSD crashed in 1992, leading to George Soro’s most famous trade…

 

Jesse Livermore

Jesse_LivermoreLivermore, who is the author of “How to Trade in Stocks”(1940), was one of the greatest traders of all time. At his peak in 1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million, which in today’s dollars roughly equates to $1.5-13 billion, depending on the index used. He is most famous, perhaps, for selling short U.S. stocks before they crashed in 1929, swelling his bank account to $100 million.

Here is a famous quote from Jesse Livermore:

“Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.”

The above quote by Jesse Livermore is one of my favorites. I am all about keeping a low-frequency trading approach and trading like a sniper not a machine gunner which is also what Livermore is saying here. Playing the market when all factors are you in favor means, as with other quotes in this lesson (seeing a theme here?) trading with confluence. He says you should be out of the market at times for emotional as well as economic reasons. Meaning, for your trading account’s sake and your mindset’s sake, you should not be in the market all the time. In fact, most of the time you should be out of the market, which is a cornerstone of my trading philosophy.

Ed Seykota

ED-seykotaTrading as a trend follower, Ed Seykota turned $5,000 into $15,000,000 over a 12-year time period in his model account – an actual client account. In the early 1970s, Seykota was hired as an analyst by a major brokerage firm. He conceived and developed the first commercial computerized trading system for managing clients’ money in the futures markets

Here is quote from Ed Seykota from The Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager:

“Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”. I am primarily a trend trader with touches of hunches based on about twenty years of experience. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary components of my trading. Way down in a very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.”

What Ed is saying in the above quote is very important because it really is something I agree with and it reflects some of the concepts I teach in my courses. I am also primarily a trend-follower who uses gut feel as an assistant, and as I’ve written about before, a trader’s gut feel is something they must develop over education and screen time. Ed also talks about chart patterns, which to me means price action patterns, which obviously you know I am a huge proponent of.

Picking a good spot to buy or sell is what I describe as trading with confluence. It takes a keen knowledge of price action and staying in tune with the story on the charts to identify good spots to buy or sell. Lastly, what Ed says about fundamental analysis is pretty much spot-on with my trading outlook; I put little stock in fundamentals because the market has typically discounted them in the price. In other words, the price action reflects all market variables, more or less. Certainly, the price action gives you enough to analyze a market and find high-probability entry and exit scenarios, so don’t over-complicate it by trying to analyze every market variable under the sun.

John Paulson

John PaulsonPaulson became world-famous in 2007 by shorting the US housing market, as he foresaw the subprime mortgage crisis and bet against mortgage backed securities by investing in credit default swaps. Sometimes referred to as the greatest trade in history, Paulson’s firm made a fortune and he earned over $4 billion personally on this trade alone.

Here is a great quote from John Paulson:

Many investors make the mistake of buying high and selling low while the exact opposite is the right strategy.”

What he means here, is that most investors and traders will tend to buy when a market is high, typically because that’s when it looks and feels good to buy. However, when a market has already moved up a lot, it’s typically ready to pullback, which is why I like to trade on market pull backs in most cases. The inverse is true for shorting; when a market has sold-off big time, you usually don’t want to sell, or you’ll end up selling the bottom, so to speak. You want to wait for a bounce in price, back to a resistance or value area, then watch for a price action sell signal there to rejoin the trend after a pull back.

Paul Tudor Jones

Paul Tudor Jones shorting of Black Monday was one of the Jones_Paul_Tudormost famous trades ever. Paul Tudor Jones correctly predicted on his documentary in 1986 based on chart patterns that the market was on the path to a crash of epic proportions. He profited handsomely from the Black Monday crash in the fall of 1987, the largest single-day U.S. stock market decline (by percentage) ever. Jones reportedly tripled his money by shorting futures, making as much as $100 million on that trade as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22 percent. An amazing trade to walk away from with a fortune when so many others were ruined in the aftermath. He played it to perfection. His funds had great consistent returns for decades.

Here is a favorite quote of mine from Paul Tudor Jones featured in the Market Wizards:

“That was when I first decided I had to learn discipline and money management. It was a cathartic experience for me, in the sense that I went to the edge, questioned my very ability as a trader, and decided that I was not going to quit. I was determined to come back and fight. I decided that I was going to become very disciplined and businesslike about my trading.”

What Jones is saying here, is that there will be a time when every trader makes a huge mistake regarding money management, and they must take a cold, hard look at themselves and decide what to do next. Will you continue to bleed money from your account by continuing to make poor money management decisions? Or, will you finally get disciplined and “businesslike” in your trading? In trading, money management is literally what determines your fate, so you need to focus on it early-on if you want to have any chance of success.

Richard Dennis

richard dennisRichard J. Dennis, a commodities speculator once known as the “Prince of the Pit,” was born in Chicago, in January, 1949. In the early 1970s, he borrowed $1,600 and reportedly made $200 million in about ten years. Dennis and his friend William Eckhardt, are most famous for starting the Turtle Traders, which was a group of 21 average people to whom they taught their rules to and proved that anyone, given the right training, could trade successfully.

Here is a good quote from Richard Dennis:

“I’ve certainly done it – that is, made counter-trend initiations. However, as a rule of thumb, I don’t think you should do it.”

Richard Dennis was famously a very successful trend trader and in the above quote he is stating his feelings on trading counter trend. Interestingly, this is pretty much how I feel about trading counter-trend; sometimes it’s warranted, but most of the time it’s not, and it takes a skilled trader to be able to trade counter-trend successfully. I teach my students to master trading with the trend first and foremast and to make that the most important piece of their technical analysis.

Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley-Freeman-DruckenmillerStanley Druckenmiller is an American investor, hedge fund manager and philanthropist.

In 1988, he was hired by George Soros to replace Victor Niederhoffer at Quantum Fund. He and Soros famously “broke the Bank of England” when they shorted British pound sterling in 1992, reputedly making more than $1 billion in profits. They calculated that the Bank of England did not have enough foreign currency reserves with which to buy enough sterling to prop up the currency and that raising interest rates would be politically unsustainable.

“I’ve learned many things from him [George Soros], but perhaps the most significant is that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

The above quote is reference to George Soros who mentored Druckenmiller for a while. This quote fits perfectly with an article I wrote recently about how you don’t have to be right to make money trading. Most traders get far too concerned about the number of winners they have compared to losers when really, they should totally forget about that number and instead focus on their overall risk / reward. In other words, how much money are they making for every dollar they have risked.

Jim Rogers

Jim-Rogers-150x150James Beeland “Jim” Rogers, Jr. is a Singapore based business magnate of American origin. Regarded by the business world as a brilliant investor, Rogers is also an author and financial commentator. He co-founded the global investment partnership, Quantum Fund, along with George Soros, another equally brilliant businessman.

Here’s one of my all-time favorite trading and investing quotes, courtesy of Mr. Rogers:

“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, “I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.” No, you don’t. You should sit there until you find something.”

I really like the part above where Jim Rogers says “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner…” because that really sums up what I try to teach my students as well as my own personal trading style. Rogers is dead-on with the above quotes; most traders do WAY too much…there is nothing wrong with doing nothing if there isn’t anything to do! In other words, don’t force a trade if an obvious one isn’t there, it’s better to save your capital for a solid opportunity that’s just around the corner.

Ray Dalio

Dalio-150x150Raymond Dalio is an American billionaire investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist. Dalio is the founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. As of January 2018, he is one of the world’s 100 wealthiest people, according to Bloomberg.

Here is a pretty deep quote by Ray Dalio:

“I believe that the biggest problem that humanity faces is an ego sensitivity to finding out whether one is right or wrong and identifying what one’s strengths and weaknesses are.”

This quote by Mr. Dalio is deep, for a few reasons. One, having a sensitive ego is very bad in trading, because the fact is, you’re going to have losing trades, probably more than you want. So, if you become overly-affected / emotional by every loser, it’s going to catapult you into a huge string of trading mistakes, as I wrote about more in-depth in my article on the top trading mistakes people make.

Next, being right or wrong is and should be 100% irrelevant in trading. As the late, great Mark Douglas teaches, you can be wrong on average and still make money, and your trading success or failure doesn’t depend on whether you’re right on your next trade, read my article on the secret to trading success for more on this. Finally, you must determine what your strengths and weaknesses are as a person before you can find trading success. We all drag our personal baggage into the markets and it influences our trading, for better or worse.

Warren Buffet

warrenKnown as the “Oracle of Omaha,” Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors of all time. He runs Berkshire Hathaway, which owns more than 60 companies, including insurer Geico, battery maker Duracell and restaurant chain Dairy Queen. He has committed to giving more than 99% of his fortune to charity. So far, he has given nearly $32 billion.

Here is perhaps a lesser-known quote from Warren but one that I like nonetheless:

“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”

To me, this quote is saying that high-probability trade signals happen infrequently, which is something I teach as any of you know who have followed me for any length of time. Thus, when you do get a nice and obvious / confluent trade signal (there’s that confluent word again) you need to maximize your gains, not take a quick / easy profit. This fits nicely in my teachings about the power of risk reward and how to catch big moves in the market. I am all about waiting patiently, with discipline, for days, weeks or even months and then pouncing on that one super-obvious setup that will net me a large 1:3, 1:4, 1:5 or even greater winner. This is the basis behind my approach that proves you don’t need to win a lot to make money trading.

NinjaForex

NinjaForex-ico-3Founder memberFOREX.com & Arbitrase.club . 2007 known trade forex event not much focus, until 2013 first found strategy self and he focus to make and develop self.

Event not much show in public, we believe it ” The Lion does’t to Proff As The King Of Jungle”, much in the public people want to show their power proff, but its difficult, markets is unforgivenes to you as retail.


Conclusion

Personally, if you’re a beginning or struggling trader, I think the most important thing to takeaway from all the wisdom in today’s lesson is to first get YOURSELF straight; get your money straight, get your patience and discipline straight, know what your trading edge is and how to properly trade it BEFORE you start risking real money in the markets. If you do this, you will largely be trading in-line with the insight and advice that the above trading greats have provided you with.

What did you think of this lesson? Please share it with  us @NinjaForex !

And how strategy @NinjaForex Daily & Scalping Trade Setups – Click Here.

silent trader, how to be silent trader

1. “I never take a loss”. Losses are an inevitable part of trading. Successful traders know that sooner or later a runaway loss would wipe out their account, even if hanging on for a recovery might pay off in the short term. In Forex trading, everyone loses sometimes – it’s the ability to win more than you lose that makes you a successful trader.

2. “Money management is not important”. Deciding how much you risk on each trade is just as vital to long-term success as good trade entries and exits.

3. “Averaging down is a good entry strategy”. Why would you want more of something that is going against you? Successful traders starting strong is a critical sign of a successful trade. Adding to a trade at a worse price is a self-indulgent psychological defense mechanism that professionals cannot afford (and don’t use often, if ever).

4. “I can predict short-term movements from a chart with 90% accuracy”. This is simply impossible, and even the most talented technical traders claim maximum success rates below 70%. Very few traders do better than 55% even when picking their battles extremely carefully.

5. “I have a strategy that is profitable in all market conditions”. There are two ways to make money trading. The first is to use a defined strategy that makes some money in most market conditions or lots of money in rarer market conditions. The second is to use your own discretion and judgement of the market. A magic formula that makes money every day simply does not exist, with the possible exception of high-frequency trading, which is not accessible to retail traders.

6. “You should be in the market every day”. There are times of crisis when the market is so wild and unpredictable that almost any kind of trading becomes dangerous. Breaks from the market can also refresh the mind and relax the body.

dailyforex, forex news

7. “This price just can’t go any higher or lower”. The market can do anything at any time. As John Maynard Keynes once said, “The market can remain irrational for longer than you or I can remain solvent.”

8. “I bet the farm on this trade.” Jesse Livermore is widely considered to be the greatest trader of all time, and he frequently bet his metaphorical farm. Consider the facts that he went broke several times during his career, most notably at the end of it, and died at his own hand. Those very few traders who retire rich after betting the farm are not successful, just very lucky.

9. “I learned everything there is to know about trading”. This is not just arrogance, but stagnation. Even if you already know what you need to know to be good, isn’t there always something out there that can simulate your mind to be great, and help keep it sharp?

10. “I couldn’t do it without my fantastic trading platform”. A nice platform with bells and whistles is just that – a nice-to-have. As long as it is fast, visible, executes, and doesn’t crash, then it is all you need. A trading platform with all the bells and whistles, autotraders and advanced charts, news feeds and apps won’t turn a loser into a winner by itself.

11. “I am entirely self-taught”. Would you trust a surgeon that said he taught himself everything he knows? Of course not…because everyone who is skilled has to learn their skills from somewhere, whether it’s another professional, a course or even just a few books. There is no such thing as a trader who just practiced without direction until he made perfect. He’d be sure to suffer devastating losses in the process, and unless he’s already independently wealthy, he wouldn’t be able to afford this lesson. There’s no shame in learning from a professional – in fact, continued learning is the sign of a smart trader. The smartest of them all continue learning, even after they’ve found their successful strategy. The market is evolving constantly, and a successful trader knows that his trades should be too.

Adam Lemon, DailyForex

Follow This System

Key Points
  • Centrist Macron obtained 58.54% of the votes on Sunday, whereas his nationalist and far-right rival Le Pen got 41.46%.
  • Back in 2017, when the two politicians also disputed the second round of the French presidential vote, Macron won with 66.1% of the support, versus Le Pen’s 33.9%.
  • Addressing her supporters in Paris on Sunday night, Le Pen conceded defeat but said, “We have nevertheless been victorious.”

French President Emmanuel Macron may have just won a second term in office, but political analysts believe the continued rise of the far right will cause him significant headaches over the coming years.

“The actual closeness, relative closeness of the vote and the fact that [Marine] Le Pen got over 40%, I think that’s a damning indictment on the state of French politics and perhaps actually the state of inequality and living standards across Europe,” Julian Howard, head of multi-asset solutions at asset management firm GAM, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

Centrist Macron obtained 58.54% of the votes on Sunday, whereas his nationalist and far-right rival Le Pen got 41.46%. Back in 2017, when the two politicians also disputed the second round of the French presidential vote, Macron won with 66.1% versus Le Pen’s 33.9%.

Addressing her supporters in Paris on Sunday night, Le Pen conceded defeat but said, “We have nevertheless been victorious.”

“The ideas we represent are reaching a peak,” she added, while mentioning that in upcoming legislative elections in June, her party — National Rally — will be a “true opposition” to Macron and France’s political establishment.

In France, the president is the highest figure of the state, but the upcoming parliamentary elections for the National Assembly will show whether Macron will be able to easily pass new laws or face tough roadblocks to get his pro-business and pro-EU agenda through.

One of the challenges for his second term, as stated by Macron on Sunday, is unifying France.

Change in tone

Le Pen’s results “including a majority of working class voters and victories in many rural and suburban districts, illustrates the profound divisions in French society which will make Macron’s second term as troubled as the first,” Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a note Sunday.

Le Pen’s performance in the 2022 election benefited from a change in tone from the far-right leader. Political analysts have noted how she became more moderate this time around, avoiding a focus on immigration or rallying against European integration. Instead, Le Pen chose to talk about soaring inflation and the weaker purchasing power of French citizens.

“We should not dismiss the increase in her vote share; it shows that her efforts to normalize her party and her policies are working,” Jessica Hinds, an economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC via email Monday.

A weak scorecard

Sunday’s vote represented the third consecutive time that Le Pen has failed to become France’s president.

Having taken the reins of the party from her father in 2011, then called National Front, she ran for the top office in 2012, 2017 and now 2022. She reached the second and final round of the French presidential vote both in 2017 and this year.

Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, shocked many when he made it to the second round of France’s presidential election in 2002; but was defeated by incumbent Jacques Chirac in a landslide vote. Jean-Marie Le Pen received 17.8% of the votes that year.

“Le Pen will have difficulty, nonetheless, in surviving the next five years as the principle standard-bearer of the French far right. She and her party, National Rally, will now face a renewed challenge from Eric Zemmour and her own niece, Marion Maréchal,” Rahman said in the same note.

Zemmour, also an anti-immigration and far-right politician, was one of the many new names on the French political scene in the run-up to this year’s election. His performance in the first round of the 2022 vote was weaker than pollsters had initially estimated, with some analysts pointing to his more aggressive stance — notably toward Ukrainian refugees — as one of the reasons.

Marion Marechal, Le Pen’s niece, spoke out in support of Zemmour during this campaign.

“With regards to [the next presidential election in] 2027, the rules say that Macron won’t be able to run again and Le Pen may not either, though she has refused to rule out a fourth attempt,” Hinds said.

“So there is a lot that could be different about the next election, five years is a long time,” she added.

source https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/macron-wins-election-but-frances-far-right-has-gotten-record-support.html

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April 22 (Reuters) – A months-long rally in the dollar may be reaching its peak as the Federal Reserve gears up to deploy more interest rate hikes, according to the currency’s trading patterns in past tightening cycles.

The dollar has risen around 7% against a basket of currencies USD in the past year to its highest level since March 2020, boosted in part by expectations the Fed is ready to employ robust rate hikes to tame the worst inflation in nearly 40 years.

Those gains are largely consistent with the dollar’s behavior during the last four rate hike cycles, which has seen the U.S. currency climb an average of 2.2% in the 12 months before the central bank started raising interest rates.

In three out of the last four hiking cycles, however, the dollar index went on to pare some of its gains, losing an average of 1.4% between the first and last rate increase, according to a Reuters analysis of Refinitiv data.

“It is entirely possible that the dollar overshoots on the high side, revisiting levels we saw eight-nine years ago, but we think we are getting pretty close to a tipping point,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote that the current projections of Fed tightening are comparable to the central bank’s rate path in 1994-1995, when policymakers raised rates by 300 basis points for the steepest hiking cycle in decades. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in March and investors are projecting nearly 260 basis points of cumulative rate increases through next February. FEDWATCH

While the dollar strengthened in the months prior to the first increase in 1994, it fell 8.4% by the time the Fed was through, as rate hikes by other global central banks closed the gap between U.S. yields and those in other currencies, Goldman’s analysts said in a recent report.

Although the gap between yields on U.S. debt and foreign government bonds has widened in recent weeks, that dynamic could change if other central banks grow more aggressive in monetary policy, or if U.S. data shows growth starting to slow.

“The moment the markets sniff properly that the Fed is done with their hawkishness amid the backdrop of slowing U.S. data, then the dollar will fall off and we can get back to looking at interest rate differentials,” said Richard Benson, co-chief investment officer at Millennium Global Investments.

European policymakers have recently ramped up hawkish rhetoric. Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, on Thursday said the European Central Bank could raise interest rates at the start of the third quarter.

An election win for French President Emmanuel Macron against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen on Sunday could also reduce headwinds for the euro, which is down 4.7% against the dollar this year. The Japanese yen, meanwhile, stands at a two-decade low against the dollar.

For now, however, momentum appears to be on the greenback’s side. The dollar index is up 2.3% for April, on pace for its best month since June 2021. The index is also on track for its fourth straight month of gains, the longest such streak in two years.

Sustained dollar strength could be a mixed bag for investors, corporations and governments. While a strong dollar may help the Fed tame inflation, it can exacerbate rising prices in economies whose currencies have weakened.

A strong dollar can also weigh on the profits of U.S. companies that derive revenues from abroad and need to convert them back into dollars. Procter & Gamble PG.N and Philip Morris International Inc PM.N are among companies that cited currency headwinds in this season’s earnings reports.

“We think we are getting very close to that point where companies are going to have to start admitting that the stronger dollar is hurting the translation of their earnings and hurting international competitiveness,” said Morgan Stanley’s Shalett.

The pressure on corporates could be temporary, though, if dollar bears are right.

Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, believes the dollar could continue rising in coming months but will likely retreat during the course of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle, especially if other central bank’s grow more hawkish.

However, “that’s a story for the second half of the year, or even 2023,” he said.

GRAPHIC: Up, up and away for the dollar index https://tmsnrt.rs/3xL0IJ8

GRAPHIC: Fed hiking regimes and the U.S. dollarhttps://tmsnrt.rs/36ygWdd

GRAPHIC: U.S. dollar index in rate hiking regimeshttps://tmsnrt.rs/3L6U9UO

GRAPHIC: Advantage dollarhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3jVgAR9

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Writing by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Chris Reese).


by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

source https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/analysis-dollars-rally-may-be-nearing-tipping-point-as-fed-readies-big-hikes




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Key Points
  • Tensions between Russia and the West appear to have risen dramatically over the last week.
  • In the last few days alone, Russia stopped gas supplies to two European countries and has warned the West several times that the risk of a nuclear war is very “real.”
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said that any foreign intervention in Ukraine would provoke what he called a “lightning fast” response from Moscow.
When relations between the West and Russia were bad, but not so bad: Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives for the U.S. – Russia Summit in 2021 in Switzerland. Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The saber-rattling and rhetoric between Moscow and the West have become notably more aggressive this week, prompting concerns that a direct confrontation between the two power blocs could be more likely.

In the last few days alone, for example, Russia stopped gas supplies to two European countries and has warned the West several times that the risk of a nuclear war is very “real.”

In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that any foreign intervention in Ukraine would provoke what he called a “lightning fast” response from Moscow, while his Foreign Ministry warned NATO not to test its patience.

For their part, Western officials have dismissed Russia’s “bravado” and “dangerous” nuclear war rhetoric, with the U.K. calling on Western allies to “double down” on their support for Ukraine.

CNBC asked strategists about the likelihood of a direct confrontation between Russia and the West. Here’s what they said.

Nuclear attack?

At the start of the week, Russia’s foreign minister warned that the threat of a nuclear war “cannot be underestimated” and said NATO’s supply of weapons to Ukraine was tantamount to the military alliance engaging in a proxy war with Russia.

Putin doubled down on the bellicose rhetoric Wednesday, threatening a “lightning fast” retaliation against any country intervening in the Ukraine war and creating what he called “strategic threats for Russia.”

He then appeared to allude to Russia’s arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons when he warned that Russia has the “tools” for a retaliatory response “that no one else can boast of having now … we will use them if necessary.”

But strategists told CNBC that Putin is playing on risk aversion in the West and that the chances of a nuclear war are remote.

“I think it’s outside the realm of possibility right now that there’s going to be a nuclear war or World War III that really spills over that far beyond Ukraine’s borders,” Samuel Ramani, a geopolitical analyst and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told CNBC.

“If there’s a border spillover right now, we’re still probably most likely looking at something like Moldova being vulnerable to an invasion,” he said.

A U.S. infantryman at a combined arms live fire exercise at Al-Ghalail Range in Qatar, on Nov. 14, 2018. Spc. Jovi Prevot | U.S. Army

He noted that Russia has a long history of using “nuclear brinkmanship” as a way of preventing the West from pursuing security policies that it doesn’t like, with the escalation in hostile rhetoric aimed at deterring NATO members from making heavy arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Moment of danger

Nonetheless, Ramani noted the threat posed by Russia could become more acute if it felt humiliated on the battlefield. In particular, military setbacks in Ukraine around May 9 could pose some danger. That’s Russia’s “Victory Day” — the anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat by the Soviet Union in World War II.

“Putin has had a history of escalating unpredictability if he feels that Russia is being humiliated in some way … and if there are major setbacks, especially on around the 9th [of May] then there’s a risk of unbreakable action,” he said. “But also there’s a logic of mutually assured destruction that hopefully will rein everybody in.”

Threatening nuclear attacks is part of Putin’s “playbook,” said William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

“Putin enjoys using risks and he thinks he has a much more appetite for risk than the West does,” he told CNBC on Thursday. “He’s trying to use the old playbook of ‘if I terrify you enough, you’ll back down’,” he said.

“Ultimately, if he uses nuclear weapons, even a demonstration strike, this would turn Russia into a global pariah,” Alberque said. He advised Western leaders, “We just need to be able to manage our risk and keep our nerve and not panic when he does something that we might not expect.”

There’s no indication that there will be a direct confrontation, Liviu Horovitz, a nuclear policy researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNBC.

“Both the United States and Western European governments have repeatedly said that they have no interest in escalating this conflict beyond Ukraine, and I don’t see anything suggesting that NATO troops will be fighting in Ukraine anytime soon.”

Still, if a wider war did break out, “NATO’s overall conventional capabilities outmatch Russia’s,” he noted. What’s important now is that “all sides should avoid any steps that could create misunderstandings,” he said — steps that could lead to an accidental and potentially catastrophic war.

Economic war

While NATO has shied away from providing any aid to Ukraine that could be misconstrued as a direct attack on Russia, Western allies continue to pile on the pressure on Moscow.

Indeed, the economic punishment on Russia has been increasing by the day, in the form of more sanctions on its businesses, key sectors and officials close to or within Putin’s regime. Russia’s own Economy Ministry expects the economy to contract as a result, by 8.8% in 2022 in its base-case scenario, or by 12.4% in a more conservative scenario, Reuters reported.

Russian forces patrol in Mariupol, Ukraine, where the Russian Army has taken control, on April 22, 2022. “There is no end in sight to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and relations with the West will likely continue to deteriorate,” one analyst said. Leon Klein | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

For its part, Russia has sought to inflict its own pain on European countries that are, awkwardly, heavily reliant on Russian natural gas imports. This week it suspended supplies to Poland and Bulgaria because they refused to pay for the gas in rubles. Russia’s move was branded as “blackmail” by the EU but defended by Moscow.

While a direct confrontation between Russia and the West remains unlikely, one close Russia watcher said Western governments need to imbue their populations with a “war mentality” to prepare them for the hardships they could face as the economic fallout from the war continues. Those include rising energy costs and disrupted supply chains and goods from Russia and Ukraine, among the world’s biggest “bread baskets.”

“We’re likely to see a further escalation of the economic war, because in some ways, that’s a rational and logical move from both sides that have a very difficult time fighting one another in a direct way because of the nuclear escalation risks,” Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC on Thursday.

“Russia will cut off gas to more countries, it will increase its ruble demands, because it wants to ensure the ruble convertibility remains open, and the West needs to be preparing for this with a full war mentality, making the Western populations understand that this is going to have real economic costs and real impacts on the cost of goods, the cost of living and inflation over the coming years.”

“If we don’t take this war mentality and apply it to the economic war, then it becomes a lot easier for Putin to win and have successes there,” Hess said.

Other flashpoints to watch

After more than two months of war, Russia has expanded its control of territories in eastern and southern Ukraine, trying to create a land bridge from Russia via the Donbas region to its annexed territory of Crimea. But it has also sustained large losses in terms of manpower and arms.

In the meantime, the West continues to pledge more and more support for Ukraine, and the country’s forces are mounting a strong resistance to Russian troops, signaling a protracted and bloody conflict ahead. NATO’s chief, Jens Stoltenberg, warned Thursday that the war in Ukraine could last for years.

Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo Intelligence, said that against this backdrop, “there is no end in sight to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and relations with the West will likely continue to deteriorate.”

“The rhetoric in Russia is already shifting from statements of fighting the ‘nationalists’ in Ukraine to an alleged (proxy) war with NATO. Multiple flashpoints could further escalate the tensions with the West,” he said. Those include recent explosions in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria (which could serve as a pretext for an increased Russian presence in the region) which could bring the conflict “dangerously close to NATO’s borders,” Tursa said in a note Wednesday.

“Moscow could also step up threats to NATO over weapons supplies to Ukraine, especially after multiple military and energy facilities in Russia have been allegedly hit by Ukraine. Finally, decisions by Finland and Sweden to join NATO would be perceived by Moscow as another security threat to Russia and could increase military tensions in the Baltic region.”

source https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/29/russia-ukraine-war-should-the-west-prepare-for-war-with-putin.html

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    Accurate with trading winn morethan 80%, Very Simple Auto Trade With Algo mathematic Trapping Markets with averaging lock trend price
    Accurate with trading winn morethan 80%, Very Simple Auto Trade With Algo mathematic Trapping Markets with averaging lock trend price

    EA PO Trapping Unlimited

    USD $2,000
    USD $1,500

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  • Hierarki Zone Dealer Unlimited

    Hierarki Zone Dealer Unlimited

    USD $1,800USD $1,500
    Indicator Hierarki Zone Dealer Unlimited Vertion For HFT, DMA ECN Broker
    Pair Major, CFD, Commodity, Metal, Crypto
    All TF. Recommended For Scalper & Swing Trader. Only For Real Account MT4
    Maximum quantity exceeded
    Minimum purchase amount of 0 is required
    2 Left in Stock

    Hierarki Zone Dealer Unlimited

    Hierarki Zone Dealer Unlimited

    USD $1,800
    USD $1,500
    Indicator Hierarki Zone Dealer Unlimited Vertion For HFT, DMA ECN Broker
    Pair Major, CFD, Commodity, Metal, Crypto
    All TF. Recommended For Scalper & Swing Trader. Only For Real Account MT4
    Indicator Hierarki Zone Dealer Unlimited Vertion For HFT, DMA ECN Broker
    Pair Major, CFD, Commodity, Metal, Crypto
    All TF. Recommended For Scalper & Swing Trader. Only For Real Account MT4

    Hierarki Zone Dealer Unlimited

    USD $1,800
    USD $1,500

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  • Intraday Day Scalping Robot

    Intraday Day Scalping Robot

    USD $1,800USD $1,500
    Mode Normally-Not HFT. Very Simple Auto Trade With Algo mathematic, Time Frame M1 auto lock fitur hedging, H1 Intraday No Martiangle with No Hedging, No dll msimg File, No kernel32.dll (“history trade”), No Need DataFeed, request robot By Telegram https://t.me/BudimanCahyo
    Maximum quantity exceeded
    Minimum purchase amount of 0 is required
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    Intraday Day Scalping Robot

    Intraday Day Scalping Robot

    USD $1,800
    USD $1,500
    Mode Normally-Not HFT. Very Simple Auto Trade With Algo mathematic, Time Frame M1 auto lock fitur hedging, H1 Intraday No Martiangle with No Hedging, No dll msimg File, No kernel32.dll (“history trade”), No Need DataFeed, request robot By Telegram https://t.me/BudimanCahyo
    Mode Normally-Not HFT. Very Simple Auto Trade With Algo mathematic, Time Frame M1 auto lock fitur hedging, H1 Intraday No Martiangle with No Hedging, No dll msimg File, No kernel32.dll (“history trade”), No Need DataFeed, request robot By Telegram https://t.me/BudimanCahyo

    Intraday Day Scalping Robot

    USD $1,800
    USD $1,500

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  • PriceAction EA Unlimited

    PriceAction EA Unlimited

    USD $2,500USD $2,000
    EA PriceAction Unlimited Vertion For DMA ECN Broker
    Pair Major and All Pair, CFD, Commodity, Metal
    TF M5, M30. Only For Real Account MT4
    Maximum quantity exceeded
    Minimum purchase amount of 0 is required
    1 Left in Stock

    PriceAction EA Unlimited

    PriceAction EA Unlimited

    USD $2,500
    USD $2,000
    EA PriceAction Unlimited Vertion For DMA ECN Broker
    Pair Major and All Pair, CFD, Commodity, Metal
    TF M5, M30. Only For Real Account MT4
    EA PriceAction Unlimited Vertion For DMA ECN Broker
    Pair Major and All Pair, CFD, Commodity, Metal
    TF M5, M30. Only For Real Account MT4

    PriceAction EA Unlimited

    USD $2,500
    USD $2,000

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  • Special Silver Gold

    Special Silver Gold

    USD $2,800USD $2,000
    EA Special For Gold, Silver, AddOn Index Germany DAX, Index Australia 200 (no Need Data Feed or Calculation Spread) For DMA ECN or Prime Broker, recommended for Scalper, Swing. TF M1, M5, M15 H1, H4, D1 , claim free vps & free maintenance montly with required our broker partner. Contact Telegram @MemberForexBot
    Maximum quantity exceeded
    Minimum purchase amount of 0 is required
    1 Left in Stock

    Special Silver Gold

    Special Silver Gold

    USD $2,800
    USD $2,000
    EA Special For Gold, Silver, AddOn Index Germany DAX, Index Australia 200 (no Need Data Feed or Calculation Spread) For DMA ECN or Prime Broker, recommended for Scalper, Swing. TF M1, M5, M15 H1, H4, D1 , claim free vps & free maintenance montly with required our broker partner. Contact Telegram @MemberForexBot
    EA Special For Gold, Silver, AddOn Index Germany DAX, Index Australia 200 (no Need Data Feed or Calculation Spread) For DMA ECN or Prime Broker, recommended for Scalper, Swing. TF M1, M5, M15 H1, H4, D1 , claim free vps & free maintenance montly with required our broker partner. Contact Telegram @MemberForexBot

    Special Silver Gold

    USD $2,800
    USD $2,000

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  • Tools Template MemberForex

    Tools Template MemberForex

    USD $1,800USD $1,300
    Tools Template @NinjaForex Unlimited Vertion For HFT, DMA ECN Broker
    Pair Major, CFD, Commodity, Metal, Crypto
    All TF. Recommended For Scalper & Swing Trader. Only For Real Account MT4
    Combination Price Action, Hierarki Zone Dealer, SnR and other filter
    Maximum quantity exceeded
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    2 Left in Stock

    Tools Template MemberForex

    Tools Template MemberForex

    USD $1,800
    USD $1,300
    Tools Template @NinjaForex Unlimited Vertion For HFT, DMA ECN Broker
    Pair Major, CFD, Commodity, Metal, Crypto
    All TF. Recommended For Scalper & Swing Trader. Only For Real Account MT4
    Combination Price Action, Hierarki Zone Dealer, SnR and other filter
    Tools Template @NinjaForex Unlimited Vertion For HFT, DMA ECN Broker
    Pair Major, CFD, Commodity, Metal, Crypto
    All TF. Recommended For Scalper & Swing Trader. Only For Real Account MT4
    Combination Price Action, Hierarki Zone Dealer, SnR and other filter

    Tools Template MemberForex

    USD $1,800
    USD $1,300

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